What is the risk of meeting a currently contagious person?

Do the math based on daily and regional numbers.

On March 11, 2020, the global spread of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO).

In Germany, too, the number of infections with the novel coronavirus detected by tests rose sharply in the spring. With contact restrictions introduced at the end of March, the number of reported cases began to fall again. After case numbers remained largely constant over the summer, significantly more cases have been reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) again since the end of July. After a temporary stabilization at an elevated level, a renewed continuous increase in transmissions in the German population can currently be observed. Several factors may be responsible for the increasing new infections: Among others, the relaxation of Corona restrictions, travel within the European Union, the increasing number of tests, and also private parties repeatedly lead to hotspots.

The increasing number of cases worldwide makes it clear that this continues to be a very dynamic and serious situation.

The Covid-O-Mat shows how serious the situation continues to be in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. It calculates the probability of a person within a group being infected with the virus, depending on the number of people, the district and the current infection situation. The calculator was developed by mathematicians and programmers from Consileon, away from day-to-day business.

The Covid-O-Mat

The Covid-O-Mat was created in March in a “fly-by-night” effort as the Consileon team shared information about the current status and how the public was dealing with the virus. “A resilient number may be more tangible to many than well-intentioned advice. That’s why our colleagues developed the Covid-O-Mat and made it freely available online,” said Dr. Joachim Schü, managing partner of Consileon.

The Covid-O-Mat calculates the probability that a member of a group carries the virus and is currently infectious. Users select the county in which they are located, how many people (want to) come together, and how high the dark figure should be set. In doing so, it uses various sources, for example the case figures of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) or the framework data published by the respective ministries and health offices.

Also worth a look: Our lockdown calculator

Our lockdown calculator shows you whether your county or region is at risk of regional restrictions.
Based on daily and regional figures, it provides you with information on which counties and cities are at risk of a renewed lockdown or at least restrictive measures because they exceed the limit of 35 or 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants.

How you can you protect yourself and others from infection

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends some behavior in this regard.
Here you will also find a fact sheet with current information on the coronavirus.
Together we can get through the colder season with the AHA formula and ventilation.

With simple measures, you too can help protect yourself and others from infection, recognize signs of illness and seek help. The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends the following rules:

1

Protect

Keep as much distance as possible when coughing or sneezing – it is best to turn away. Sneeze into the crook of your arm or into a paper handkerchief, which you dispose of afterwards. Avoid touching when greeting others and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

2

Recognize

The first signs of illness are cough, cold, scratchy throat and fever. Some affected people also suffer from diarrhea. In severe cases, breathing problems or pneumonia may occur. Symptoms of the disease can appear up to 14 days after infection.

3

Act

What to do if symptoms of coronavirus infection have appeared?

If the signs of illness described above appear within 14 days of contact, avoid unnecessary contact with other people and stay at home. Contact your family doctor by phone or call the phone number
116 117 and discuss further action before going to a doctor’s office.

Have you had contact with a person with such an illness? Contact your local public health department.

Your contact person regarding the Covid-O-Mat

Sebastian Sohr and his team developed the Covid-O-Mat and the Lockdown Calculator outside of day-to-day business.
As co-founder of Consileon Business Consultancy, he has been working for Consileon since 2001. The mathematics graduate is an expert in the fields of business analytics, artificial intelligence and software development.

Dr. Sebastian Sohr
+49 178 8863 045
Sebastian.Sohr@consileon.de

Do you have questions about our Covid risk calculator?

Then feel free to get in touch with us – without any risk. We are looking forward to your message.

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